A Favorite Super Bowl Tradition

Some people love the Super Bowl for the commercials (though in recent years they have not been nearly as good as the ones of old). Some love it for the drama of a championship game. But my favorite part of the Super Bowl, at least the last few years, have been the SNL Totino’s trilogy of commercials. Sadly, since Vanessa Bayer left as a cast member the show no longer makes these pre-tapes. But a Totino’s clip in January was the highlight of my SNL viewing season. Check them out below:

Oscar Predictions 2019

As always, I make my predictions as soon as the nominations are out. These are the individuals and films that will win Oscars in 2019 – no need to watch the host-less show now!

Best Picture

A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Green Book
Roma
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Vice

Should Win: BlackKKKlansman, both the best of the bunch and also the movie that affected me the most even months after seeing it. I also really enjoyed The Favourite and A Star is Born, and while I like Black Panther, to me it’s great just for a Marvel movie to be nominated.

Will Win: Welp. A few weeks ago, I’d have said A Star is Born is a lock. Then Bradley Cooper (or as my friend Rachel Weiner dubbed him years ago, Cooper Bradley) didn’t even get nominated for Best Director, a bad sign. Green Book (likely your parents’ favorite movie) and Roma seem like the best bets here, with the crowd-pleasing Bohemian Rhapsody a dark horse. I’ll say Roma.

Directing

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Should Win: Spike Lee. His first nomination, and his is the best movie of this group. The surprise here is Pawlikowski, essentially taking the slot I thought would go to Cooper. And Lanthimos’s film was his most audience-accessible and yet still retained his trademark quirkiness.

Will Win: Cuaron, and I think this is the prediction about which I feel best.

Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Should Win: I’m surprised that Ethan Hawke and Lucas Hedges are out and Mortensen and Dafoe are in, but Bradley Cooper’s Jackson Maine is the only character on this list I’ll remember years from now.

Will Win: This has felt like a Bale/Malek showdown since the Golden Globes, and with Bale having already earned a trophy, I think the Academy will recognize Malek.

Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Should Win: Olivia Colman was great, but A Star is Born does not work without Gaga’s performane as Aly. Aparicio is the heart of Roma, and the same is true of McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me.

Will Win: This has also felt predestined since the Globes to go between Close and Colman. I think Close will win, as her Globes speech put her back on a lot of voters’ radars.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Should Win: Driver was great, though I thought Topher Grace was the more memorable performance in that film. Rockwell did an admirable Dubya in Vice, but he and Ali are the two most recent recipients of this award. I think the Academy will want to spread the love.

Will Win: This seems to come down to a career recognition of Sam Elliott versus an outstanding performance by Richard E. Grant. Supporting Actor is usually a category with big upsets, so I’ll take Grant.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Should Win: Stone and Weisz are the foundation at the heart of The Favourite, and their performances should win them a co-trophy. I’m very surprised to see de Tavira on the list, though she was quite good.

Will Win: Does the Academy recognize Amy Adams, frequently-nominated but still searching for her first trophy? Or will it go with Regina King, who I’ve enjoyed ever since she was Marcy Tidwell in Jerry Maguire? Adams is long overdue, but this would feel like a make-good award, and she’s had several better performances. I think the award goes to King.

Original Screenplay

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Should Win: First Reformed was scintillating, and Paul Schraeder is a phenomenal writer. The Favourite had a great story about palace intrigue. Vice, for me, had a lot of story faults – the story of Scooter Libby leaking Valerie Plame’s name is all but dropped after an off-hand mention. And – sorry Mom and Dad – Green Book is 1) Driving Mr. Daisy, and 2) Going to get dinged because its author had some seriously bad tweets in 2015. Therefore…

Will Win: Roma.

Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk had some memorable scenes, and Buster Scruggs works as an anthology (though I thought it had thematic and tonal issues). Can You Ever Forgive Me is an ironic choice considering its subject is a woman who fakes letters. And while A Star is Born is a really solid movie, the story fades badly in the second half. Ergo…

Will Win: BlackKKlansman.

Animated Feature Film

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Should Win: Spiderverse. Period. It’s one of the best animated films of all time.

Will Win: Ditto.

Cinematography

Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

Should Win: Things get interesting here. A Star is Born has some beautiful concert shots, but its cinematography is most memorable when Jackson and Aly are riding through the desert. Cold War is nominated for Best Director as well and has a Polish director, Never Look Away is a German film, and the Favourite deals with the England of centuries ago, and all three are fine choices, but it’s a different foreign film that will win this category.

Will Win: Roma.

Documentary Feature

Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Should Win: This is one of the best years for Documentary I can remember. Free Solo has gotten raves, and in another year might be the front-runner.

Will Win: RBG.

Documentary Short Subject

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Should Win: Having seen none, I’ll just say that they all have very nice titles.

Will Win: Lifeboat.

Foreign Language Film

Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters
Capernaum
Never Look Away

Should Win: A strong year for foreign film! Cold War snagged a Best Director nom, and Never Look Away received one for cinematography. Shoplifters may have been my dad’s favorite movie of 2018. All that said…

Will Win: Roma.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Should Win: Vice. Christian Bale essentially became Dick Cheney.

Will Win: Same.

Costume Design

Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

Should Win: Black Panther. The world-building that movie did included clothing for all of the various tribes of Wakanda.

Will Win: The Favourite.

Film Editing

Blackkklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Should Win: Best Editing is usually tied to best picture. Interestingly, Roma is not nominated here, which may portend more trouble for the film than I originally saw. Regardless, BlackKklansman had some brilliant editing, including the scene with the bomb towards the end, when the action toggled back and forth between several characters.

Will Win: As much as I’m hopeful that Spike Lee’s film will get some Oscar love, I think this will go to Green Book, and will begin the slow realization of my Oscar night that it’s going to win a lot of awards.

Original Score

Black Panther
Blackkklansman
If Baele Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Should Win: BlackKklansman, because it really did have great music that added an extra element of intensity.

Will Win: Mary Poppins Returns, because it’s a musical.

Animated Short Film

Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Should Win: One Small Step, because it’s amazing:

Will Win: Bao, because it played before the Incredibles 2 and so most voters will have seen it.

Live Action Short Film

Detainment
Fauve
Mother
Marguerite
Skin

Should and Will Win: Detainment (having seen none of them, that’s my answer and I’m sticking to it).

Sound Editing

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

Should Win: First Man. The job they did with various noises (rockets taking off, etc.) were great, but also the moment of silence when (50-year spoiler alert) Neil Armstrong walks on the moon was one of the best “sound” moments of the year.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Sound Mixing

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Should Win: First Man, for the same reasons as above.

Will Win: A Star Is Born

Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Should Win: I’m never going to go against Star Wars, although Infinity War and Ready Player One had really great special effects.

Will Win: First Man, the only “awards-y” film of the bunch.

Original Song

“All the Stars” from Black Panther
“I’ll Fight” from RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow” from A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Should and Will Win: Shallow. I mean, it’s a song that is legitimately great, that’s currently on pop radio rotation.

Production Design

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Should and Will Win: Black Panther. Again, Ryan Coogler and company had to completely world-build Wakanda, and they made it feel like a real place.

What I am Looking Forward to, 2019 Edition

Now that we’re well into 2019, I wanted to do a quick post discussing the movies and TV shows about which I am most excited this year (h/t Chris Daly for encouraging me to write this).

Star Wars Episode IX:

Still no title and no teaser, but no matter – it’s a new Star Wars movie.

Disney+:

A new Star Wars show (The Mandalorian), new Marvel shows (centered on Loki, Scarlet Witch, and Lady Sif), every old Disney movie, and more. This is going to be Disney’s version of Netflix, and if you’re anything like me you are already feeling like this:

Image result for shut up and take my money gif

Marvel Movies:

Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, and Spider-Man: Far From Home all look fantastic. You have the first female-led Marvel movie, the movie that will resolve the cliffhanger from last year’s terrific Infinity War, and then a new Spider-Man movie riding a wave of recent Spidey successes (Venom, Into the Spider-Verse, etc.).

excited to see Spidey in action

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

Because the first Lego Movie is as close to perfection for me as any movie in recent memory, from the debate of following the instructions vs. free building to the joy of seeing so many old parts and sets. Can’t wait for the follow up.

Disney Remakes:

Dumbo, The Lion King, and Aladdin were easily some of my favorite Disney films growing up, so to get all three again on the big screen in the style of Maleficient, Cinderella, the Jungle Book, and Beauty and the Beast will be a treat. Curious to see how Will Smith’s genie compares to Robin Williams’s. The voice cast for The Lion King (Donald Glover, Beyonce, John Oliver, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, and a returning James Earl Jones as Mufasa) is pride-worthy (see what I did there?).

Other Disney Releases:

Wow, is Disney going to own the year or what? Both Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4 are sequels to well-received animated films that I’ll definitely see in theaters.

The Beach Bum:

Directed by Harmony Korine, who also did Kids and Spring Breakers, this Matthew McConaughey-starring vehicle looks insane, in the best way possible. Can’t. Wait.

Others I have some interest in include the reboot of Men in Black, Detective Pikachu (it has a cute trailer), Hobbs and Shaw (because #FastAndFurious movies usually deliver), Shazam, Ad Astra, Sonic the Hedgehog, Little Women, and The Goldfinch.

TV:

While of course I’m excited about the return of some shows (Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Big Little Lies, Superstore, The Good Place, etc.), I want to highlight things that are other premiering or ending in 2019.

Premieres:

The Watchmen (HBO – from the creator of LOST and The Leftovers, and with characters from Alan Moore’s original groundbreaking graphic novel), I am the Night (TNT – miniseries with Chris Pine and directed by Patty Jenkins), Russian Doll (TNT – miniseries with Natasha Lyonne about someone who has to live the same day over and over again), and Miracle Workers (TBS – Daniel Radcliffe and Steve Buscemi who play an angel and God, respectively).

Finales:

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix), Veep (HBO), The Big Bang Theory (CBS), and of course Mr. Robot (USA) all conclude this year.

Here’s hoping 2019 has more hits than misses, and is an even better entertainment year than 2018. It already has brought us one of my favorite all-time GIFs:

Image result for gwendolyn good place

What is everyone else excited about? Let me know in the comments!

If I Could Create the Oscar Ballot, 2019

Image result for a star is born gif

Oscar nominations are scheduled to be revealed in about 10 days. But why wait for what they will inevitably get incorrect? This quick post is only about what I would nominate in the major categories (picture, director, and the acting races). I’ll make my actual choices the day the nominations are announced (including who I think should win as well as who will), but for now, let this serve as the ballot as I would construct it based on the past year in movies. Note that I haven’t seen *everything* so if you think there is some obvious thing missing (say, Glenn Close for The Wife or Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me), it’s just that I haven’t seen the performances yet. Feel free to let me know of key omissions in the comments (and yes, Mom and Dad, nothing for Green Book).

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