CODA. Nomadland. Parasite. Green Book. The Shape of Water. If you’re like me, you can rattle off the Best Picture winners from the past five years. Now, here’s another list: Ordinary People, Kramer vs. Kramer, The Deer Hunter, Annie Hall, Rocky, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, The Godfather Part II. These are the Best Picture winners from 1981 – 1975. Due respect to the movies at the beginning of this paragraph, but if we’re being honest, which group contains not only the better movies, but the ones people still talk about and want to rewatch? I’m thinking about the lack of capital-O Oscar movies this morning because this year’s crop is kind of a dud. But, isn’t that what we said last year, and the year prior, and the year before that? I know there’s a danger in lamenting the present for the sake of the past, or saying, “boy, they sure don’t make them like they used to,” but…boy, they sure don’t make them like they used to, huh? With preamble out of the way, let me do what I do every year, and make my Oscar picks the day of the announcements. (Obviously the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have taken place, but my hope is that these choices are still somewhat untainted by a full-blown campaign season. Some things already feel like locks, so I will make the obvious choice). Let me know what you’re choosing in the comments below.
Best Picture
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should win: Honestly, Top Gun: Maverick, as it’s the best movie I saw this year.
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Todd Field, “Tár”
Ruben Ostlund, “Triangle of Sadness”
Should win: Martin McDonagh, because I really enjoyed Banshees and because he knows how to get the most out of his actors – all four of which were nominated for acting nominations (see below).
Will win: The Daniels.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, “Tár”
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should win: Gosh, anybody but de Armas, whose movie was so unbearable I can’t believe she was nominated for both an Oscar and a Razzie for the same role. I guess Williams, since I’m nothing if not a Dawson’s Creek stan.
Will win: Blanchett.
Best Actor
Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy, “Living”
Should win: Farrell, who has quietly turned into a terrific actor. (Austin Butler would normally gain points for me from being on Zoey 101, but he loses those points because he never lost the Elvis voice.)
Will win: Fraser, who I am cheering for because of Encino Man, School Ties, and With Honors.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau, “The Whale”
Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should win: Condon, whose quiet performance in Banshees helped stabilize the more outsized plot between the “rowing” Farrell and Gleeson.
Will win: Bassett.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”
Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should win: Keoghan, whose performance was fantastic in Banshees. (I’m also very happy for Brian Tyree Henry.)
Will win: Ke Huy Quan, in what is proving to be the lock of the night.
Cinematography
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
“Elvis”
“Tár”
Should and will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Editing
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Should win: Maverick, which deftly conveyed aerial battles and maneuvers.
Will win: EEAAO (Best Editing is often tied to Best Picture).
Original Screenplay
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Tár”
“Triangle of Sadness”
Should win: Banshees, which is a quiet story that relies on its dialogue to convey the break-up between Farrell and Gleeson’s characters.
Will win: EEAAO. Between this and Quan’s Best Supporting Actor win, it’ll start a steamrolling night for EEAAO.
Adapted Screenplay
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Living”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Women Talking”
Should win: I actually really enjoyed Glass Onion, but I think you have to give it to All Quiet on the Western Front for updating a movie classic.
Will win: All Quiet.
Production Design
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Elvis”
“The Fabelmans”
Should win: Well, does Avatar get points for making a whole new planet, or lose points since it’s all basically CGI/green screen? I can’t imagine the loathed Babylon is going to get anything, so maybe this is where Elvis or Fabelmans pick up a token trophy.
Will win: Fabelmans.
International Feature
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Germany
“Argentina, 1985,” Argentina
“Close,” Belgium
“EO,” Poland
“The Quiet Girl,” Ireland
Should win: Argentina, 1985, which won the Golden Globe in this category
Will win: All Quiet, which is nominated for actual Best Picture.
Animated Feature
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
Should win: MARCEL THE SHELL. PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE.
Will win: Ugh, probably Pinocchio.
Animated Short
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
“The Flying Sailor”
“Ice Merchants”
“My Year of Dicks”
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”
Should win: Um….Ice Merchants.
Will win: No clue.
Documentary Feature
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“A House Made of Splinters”
Should and will win: A movie about the cruelty inflicted by Vladimir Putin feels quite topical and timely.
Documentary Short
“The Elephant Whisperers”
“Haulout”
“How Do You Measure a Year?”
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
“Stranger at the Gate”
Should win: The Elephant Whisperers.
Will win: The Martha Mitchell Effect.
Live-Action Short
“An Irish Goodbye”
“Ivalu”
“Le Pupille”
“Night Ride”
“The Red Suitcase”
Should win: An Irish Goodbye, because I clearly enjoyed Banshees of Inisherin and it’s not going to get enough love on Oscars night.
Will win: Le Pupille
Visual Effects
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Should win: Maverick, because the stunts were real.
Will win: Avatar, I guess.
Original Song
“Applause” (“Tell It Like a Woman”)
“Hold My Hand” (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
“Lift Me Up” (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
“Naatu Naatu” (“RRR”)
“This Is a Life” (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Should and will win: Naatu Naatu
Original Score
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Babylon”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
Should win: Fabelmans, because John Williams is an icon.
Will win: EEAAO
Sound
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Batman”
“Elvis”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Should win: Maverick or All Quiet
Will win: Elvis
Makeup and Hairstyling
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“The Whale”
Should and will win: The Whale, solely for what they were able to accomplish with Brendan Fraser’s appearance
Costume Design
“Babylon”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should and will win: Black Panther, which had to create several Wakandan tribes, plus the look of Namor and his people.
The PSA 