As I like to do every year, I want give my insta-picks for who I think will win the 2022 Oscars. This year is a bit weird, right? No televised Golden Globes, no real precursors yet, and no huge hit/frontrunner. The movie with the highest total nominations (The Power of the Dog) isn’t one that I think a lot of people have even seen. And – just like last year – most of these movies are ones that people would have viewed at home, either on Netflix/Hulu/streaming or via PPV. So my picks may be slightly worse than in year’s past, but these are my best guesses (sometimes with reasons as to why I chose the winner). Let me know who you think will win in the comments, and we can all compare notes after the show.
BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Weird year to go back to the 10-film requirement, as something like Nightmare Alley feels like it snuck in on the back of craft/makeup/wardrobe support, rather than acting. Let’s start with one big trend that I know others have pointed out: most of the nominees for Best Picture do not feature a Best Actor or Best Actress nominee, which means the fields for both awards are more wide open than in years past. Denis Vileneuve did not get nominated for Best Director, so maybe he gets an Affleck vis-a-vis Argo boost and that movie wins? I think this will be a year – like 2001, for instance – where the awards are spread around. So my pick is Belfast. Judi Dench snagging the nomination shows there is wide support in the actor’s branch, and when has Hollywood turned away from a black-and-white period piece about the difficult life of a family?
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Campion is a history-maker, becoming the first woman to be nominated twice for Best Director. Spielberg is obviously an Oscar darling, and PTA has a wide base of support. I think Belfast gets the big prize, as noted above, but Campion continues her history-making path and becomes the only the second woman to win best director, after Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
I thought Spencer was capital-W WEIRD, but Stewart was terrific. And while Being the Ricardos was too Sorkin-y, even for my tastes (seriously, another “It’s 6-5 and pick ’em”), Kidman really was up to the task of being Lucy. Since Colman, Cruz, and Kidman all have previously-earned statues, I’m going out on a limb and saying Chastain takes home the prize.
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Interesting that all five nominees are previous nominees, with Washington having taken home Best Actor for his work in Training Day. This feels like Will Smith’s time – with a reboot of “Fresh Prince” on the way, and this win offering something of a career/lifetime achievement award, I think he’ll be the one to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
I’m surprised Ruth Negga didn’t get nominated for Passing, as she seemed like a lock. And Judi Dench’s nom is equally unlikely – she was trailing her own co-star, Catriona Balfe, on most pundit’s scorecards before nominations were announced. I think Power of the Dog is going to have a big night, and that movie hinges on Dunst’s performance, so she’ll win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Similarly, Power of the Dog really relies on Smit-McPhee’s performance (no spoilers here, but suffice it to say the last 10-15 minutes are his). I was shocked Simmons got this nomination, and he seemed to knock out Bradley Cooper for Licorice Pizza.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Cruella. Why not?
BEST SOUND
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
West Side Story, because when in doubt with sound categories, go for the musical.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Encanto, because that movie’s soundtrack is doing very well.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter, because it captured the spirit of Ferrante’s work.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Licorice Pizza, as a paean to Anderson. If – if – somehow Don’t Look Up gets momentum, I won’t be surprised if a McKay screenplay award is the first of its many wins.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Boxballet. I’m 100% sure it’ll be Boxballet. (I have no clue.)
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
The Long Goodbye was made by Riz Ahmed, who gave my favorite performance last year (in “Sound of Metal”). So maybe this year he gets the Oscar of which he was robbed in 2021.
BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick … Boom!
An editing award is usually a good precursor for Best Picture, but my pick of Belfast isn’t nominated here. Instead, I’ll go with Power of the Dog. Again, if Don’t Look Up wins, it’ll be the big winner of the night.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Jessica Chastain really became Tammy Faye. I think that will net her team the win.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Flee (as you’ll see below) is in a whole other class – not only is it nominated for Best Animated Feature, it also is nominated for Best Documentary and Best International Feature. I think that trifecta gets celebrated here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire
If the voters spread the love, Summer of Soul – Questlove’s movie – will win; otherwise, Flee again.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
I’ll go with The Queen of Basketball.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” — DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter (King Richard)
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast)
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days)
Diane Warren nominated AGAIN – this time for “Somehow You Do” – and I still don’t think she’ll win. When in doubt, go with Beyonce (for “Be Alive”) or Lin-Manuel Miranda to get his EGOT for his “Encanto” song.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
I thought Dune was a slog, but it was really pretty. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Power of the Dog takes this one home, too.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
I think this is between Flee and Drive My Car (much as I want A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM to win an Oscar), since Drive My Car is nominated both for Best Director and Best Picture, it has to win this.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Let’s toss West Side Story another win here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
I’ll say Spider-Man, since it was a box office behemoth and should get some Oscar recognition.
The PSA 